MidWeek Update

so far my analysis on the interim bottom is right :)

traders would have made quite abit on the spx bottom @ 1400 and eurusd 1.28xx bottom. and that would prolly conclude this week's 100 pips profit target :) with some excess...

update1:
there could be correction along the way from now on. so be prudent :)

Interim Bottom

i will attempt to short usdcad @ 1.003 or so for this week's 100 pips target.
i believe the bottom is near. US markets are close today once more due to Sandy

Weekly Analysis for Week 44

I think that the US indices may bottom soon and believe in an interim rebound. this will be accompanied by eurusd's rebound, audusd and nzdusd. usdcad should also drop.

my tentative long target are below:
1400 on the spx futures
1.28xx for eurusd. the pivot point at 1.284 should stand
audusd should commence a wave C up but i wont suggest you long him.
nzdusd can be longed but on dip.
usdcad should be a short at around 1.002

meanwhile i shall continue to test my intraday system

Intraday Analysis/End of week analysis

spx has broke below the 1400 on futures. i still think a bottom is near but do not long just yet. need more confirmation when doing counter trend.

looks like this week's trade made small money, 30 pips overall with the eurjpy and usdjpy. my audusd trade would be in the money if i executed it and 100 pips a week would be achieved but i was bz testing other stuff :).

today is very simple, as long as 1400 is not held den markets are in deep trouble. on a side note i actually think that eurusd has to go lower first before an interim low.

NEW strategy:
looks like my new strategy is doing well but yesterday there was a failed signal. i shall think about it over the weekend. anywae after yesterday's failed signal i actually waited for another signal and shorted crude for small profit. but everything was too hectic so i did not post it here.

today is my rest day but i will check on the markets at night as i intend to long for next week.

potential long candidates are:
eurusd:long @ 1.29 or 1.286
audusd:long @ 1.0305
nzdusd
usdcad:short @ 1.002

these are just tentative targets, need to exercise "experience" when entering if you know what i mean :)

New Strategy

I am currently testing a different strategy to trade. i shall post my trades in the chat box when i see a signal throughout the day. it will be rather impromptu though.

good luck!

AUDUSD

looking at comodities, it seems like they are out performing eur n gbp. the bottom could be near or is already in for aud n nzd. as for usdcad i would think a short about parity is a better short.

recommend short audusd 1.038

Potential Bottm in sight

based on my intermarket analysis, a potential bottom might be here. but it could be an interim one. but i m quite sure shorts have to take some profit off the table which i did yesterday

there is fomc todae

SPX

Bears are in control. SPX has made a lower low and has open the door to more downside momemtum. do not long unless there are good counts and need more confirmation.

EURJPY

i have a decent count for eurjpy short but since i m short usdjpy, shorting this pair might not be a good idea. but i shall follow the count.

Resistance is 104.5. this level must not be breached.

if my usdjpy is breached, (79.9), den most probably my eurjpy will be wrong too. but if i m right den i will enjoy double rewards :)

good luck!

Intraday Analysis

USDJPY:
decent short recommendation at 79.65, count has changed a little by overall still intact.

EURUSD:
potential short at 1.3075 for at least a retracement.

USDCAD:
maintain buy on dip to reach first target of 1.002.



sidenote:
Asia has performed very well to the US sell off. i m stunned by this. bears pls take note.

update1:
USDJPY close to wave violation. all yen pairs will be affected. there is also a significant moving average and a close above this 200 sma is bullish

Trade Plan for the Week 43(Oct 22)

Overall Trade Strategy should be short, short on rebound and short laggards.

SPX:
last friday i called for an interim bottom on 1435 futures but it just continued to drop. this is bad. the bull count is quite damaged and i believe we are in a complex correction with a chance for a potential crash. the next target to bounce for spx is 1423 futures which we should get a hint on monday morning. However, any rebound is a short for now.

USDJPY:
i still think that 79.35 is a short unless proven otherwise.

USDCAD:
I believe it is doing a C wave up but i suggest no chasing and wait for retrace to long. chasers will have to bear the additional risk. first end target should be around parity at 1.002

GBPJPY:
my open position looks ok at the moment. I also chose a better short(as compared to EURJPY) as we should short the weaker ones. There are ways to determine which is a better short btw.

Lets see how i perform next week :)

Weekend Reflection

Every week i shall do a reflection to see what could be done better and improve. btw on a side note. spx futures should have its low in pretty soon imo at abt 1435 den bounce off that low. (the trend is down still, wait for more confirmation before longing)

Reviewing my Trading Record for this week seems like i missed this weeks target of 100 pips as i was cut first before the drop commenced. :(

but in real life,

(10,000 Yen = about 125 USD)

i managed to achieve my target this week and abit more. :) (Proud Owner of GBPJPY Short at 128.105 , Recent High was 128.24)

"Trading is not just about calculations and strategy, there are other impt qualities too."

USDJPY and Intraday View

USDJPY:
this pair has reached a critical point. it reached my short zone at about 79.35(200 SMA). I shall be watching him very closely to see if there is a rejection to allow a short to take place.

Key areas today imo lie in EURUSD and SPX futures and GBPUSD.

Key Event: Euro Summit, i read some news about some cooperation on banking supervision. i tink that is a small step towards better integration but as usual to most summits, most of the time nothing is being done but talk only. we shall c how market reacts, if any.

EURUSD:
key area imo is 1.3050. i actually have some calculation for 1.3050 to be a key support level today. Bulls really need to defend hard here.

on the other hand...

SPX Futures:
i tink a tgt is abt 1443 at least before trying any more rally. Key area is yesterdays low at 1448.

GBPUSD:
1.6025 is a key area as it is a resistance turned support zone. If there is a C wave down that area will be lost. maybe some bounce around first but that area is the place to watch if you are bullish or bearish on this.

Count Update across the board

the 1 thing abt a trader is that he has to be hardworking. thus said, i have to chk thru all the pairs and see if their count has changed. i also apply intermarket analysis to determine if i should leave my position open or close first see how later.

so currently based on yesterday's analysis, i have this position still open..

btw 10,000 Yen = about 125 USD

I know my Trading Record shows that this position was cut off but that was based on counts alone. In real life trading, there are other factors to take into account and they paid off as I got a short near the top :) (Highest: 128.24)

GBPJPY:
based on what i see i believe some of double bottom is on the charts and a rebound is at hand before another wave down to allow me to sqaure off this position.

the hint to whether to close this now or later will lie in usdjpy and gbpusd. so i will be watching and updating their counts respectively.

USDCAD

was reviewing my pairs and noticed this pair has found support at the channel close to 0.98. based on my EW count, if there is no wave C down. the reverse would b true. expect USDCAD to rally in the next few days :)

recommend long @ 0.98

AUDUSD

short at 1.0385(now).

based on my calculations, the monthly pivot should prove to hold its rally and a retracement is due. fibonacci calculations also suggest a short around this region.

spx would need to hold its rally for this to work out imo

No Longing Day & EURJPY and GBPJPY

these 2 pairs are worth the short today. they have fallen the most since 3pm and should be shorted if there is any rebound. they have also reached my tgt of 103.8x for eurjpy and 127.8 for gbpjpy.

recommended short is 30 pips from todays top

update1:
the wave structure suggest the yen pairs might take another run for the day high before dropping.

Good Luck!

update2:
yen pairs are always very volatile. looks like my short was way too early as both eurjpy and gbpjpy had only a abc correction before trying to go higher again but i am sure their top is close by. short targets changed to

eurjpy:104.1 to 104.25
gbpjpy:128.35

if you have experience with elliot wave, the abc correction would have prevented you from shorting and wait to short higher! never mess with the waves! :)

update3:
i believe the gbpjpy has topped and should commence a correction lasting at least 1 day. for confirmation of this it has to break its day low at 127.36

Still Bullish Bias

as i suspected today is still an up day from yesterday. my shorts will have to be closed with losses :( but i managed to do an intraday short on USDCAD @ 9820 to gain back some losses. :)

EURUSD poise to retest previous high (1.317)

Market has been pretty slow this Wednesday. this is the wall of worry that bears do not like. Shortist have to be careful and not short to early.

Gameplan:
Longs can still hold on and wait to sell higher still.
Short have to be wary and no shorting in this region for that i m sure.

Intermarket Analysis

SPX:
due for a correction, at least a retracement. recommended short is approximatly 1452 on the futures.

EURO:
1.3060 was the last straw for my previous count yesterday and it seems like it wants to go higher thus my previous count is wrong and the target to short now is 1.314 to 1.316 where a series of confluence lie. (I did not short eurusd yesterday as my experience suggest something was not right so i chose another pair)

GBPUSD:
still stuck in a channel on the 15min timeframe. a series of resistance suggest 1.6145 to hold. At 1630(SG Time) there will be UK news so be alert during those times. As i suspected yesterday 1 final rally is needed for the gbpusd to rise to approximately 1.6145 region before dropping.

Update1:
AUDUSD has a 5 waves move up(short timeframe) and would complete at around 1.033. there is also a channel rest and wave 4 violation to my previous count. recommended short is around 1.0330. based on fundamentals, markets is also factoring in a rate cut as the previous monetary minutes was deemed dovish. 1.0154 is an important support for AUDUSD and cannot be lost in my opinion.

Update2:
shorted spx mini futures at 1450(1 pt is 50 USD). i will most probably close this position when it dips lower than the day low at 1446.25 unless things really sour. Do take note that although I have a few trade plans i am going to stick with just 2. check out my Trading Record for a list of the updated positions.

Site Layout

Hi Everyone, as i will be busy monitoring the markets. the site shall be maintained and upgraded to be more user friendly as time goes by. Thank you for your patience

EURUSD ABCDE TRI or ABC up?

looking to short eurusd or gbpusd

price targets:

eurusd:1.3030

gbpusd:1.6125

Rationale:

based on my EW count, it is highyly likely eurusd is trying to do a ABCDE tri or an ABC up from the 1.2800 interim bottom. the trick lies in the eurjpy and gbpjpy that is y i m relucant to short too early and wait for a good count before shorting.

on a side note. spx is due for an interim bottom this week, and shorts r to be wary this week

stay sharp!

update1: target has reached but do not short yet as exp suggest more up still and there is no reaction yet

update2: as expected. eurusd n gbpusd has rallied more. i m rdy to short gbpusd @ 1.6125

update3: as internal wave count suggest 1 more minor w5 to complete the wave up i m gg to risk the 1.6125 short and wait to short higher for gbpusd @ perhaps 1.6145.

update4: shorted gbpusd @1.6125. will update this trade in the nxt few days

update5: there should be 1 more rally higher to finish off my wave for gbpusd. thus i dont think i got the top short for gbpusd :(